Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 118.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 56.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 26.9 23.6 23.3 23.4 21.8 21.9 15.3 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 22.0 15.0 9.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.4 73.0 71.2 71.2 67.7 55.0 52.2 42.9 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 63.0 52.0 18.0 10.0 19.0 -1.0 0.0 F N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 73.0 73.0 70.0 66.0 62.0 59.0 51.0 F N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 3.2% 4.5% 25kt / 24h 5.7% 9.6% 7.6% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 5.5% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 2.8% 5.2% 4.0% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 3.8% 2.3% 45kt / 36h 1.6% 6.1% 3.9% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 2.0% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 EP112026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 118.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.