Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260830 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 119.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 25.5 23.0 23.7 22.4 23.4 19.5 18.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 13.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 73.0 71.2 69.4 69.4 56.5 52.2 52.2 42.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 67.0 29.0 4.0 0.0 6.0 -7.0 -9.0 F N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 69.0 66.0 64.0 61.0 57.0 49.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 1.6% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 2.4% 4.8% 3.6% 30kt / 24h 1.5% 2.5% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 2.2% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 3.1% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 EP112026 260830 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 119.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.