Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260830 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 120.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 20.3 20.2 20.6 18.8 19.9 18.8 17.4 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 9.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.2 64.4 62.7 61.0 59.3 47.2 37.9 37.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 23.0 -9.0 -1.0 -7.0 -23.0 -3.0 39.0 N U U U U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 62.0 59.0 53.0 52.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.5% 2.3% 3.9% 25kt / 24h 2.2% 5.0% 3.6% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 2.6% 2.1% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 3.8% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.70 EP112026 260830 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 120.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.