Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.0  21.7  17.4  22.6  20.4  21.9  14.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  57.7  56.0  54.3  52.7  42.2  32.9  32.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -9.0  -5.0  -6.0   4.0 -28.0  15.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        3.8%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%        5.8%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        3.8%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        3.4%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        2.8%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 EP112026 260830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.