Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  21.2  20.2  20.6  26.1  26.5  20.6  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  51.0  51.0  49.3  46.1  37.2  35.8  27.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  -8.0 -19.0 -21.0 -10.0  13.0  10.0  22.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%        5.7%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%        7.3%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        5.6%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%        5.3%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        3.9%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.54

 EP112026 260830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.