Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  22.1  24.1  24.9  27.2  23.8  14.2  13.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.0  16.0  14.3  12.7  12.7   2.2   2.2  -5.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -17.0 -19.0  -9.0 -31.0   5.0  12.0  27.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 EP112026 260831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    123.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.