Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  21.8  24.0  27.6  25.4  17.2  13.3  12.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.0   4.3   2.7   2.7  -7.8  -7.8 -15.8 -17.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -15.0  -5.0 -19.0   7.0   0.0  12.0 -29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.42

 EP112026 260831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.