Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.6  26.4  25.9  20.9  15.3   9.7  14.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.3   7.7   7.7   7.7  -2.8  -2.8 -12.1 -10.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   5.0   0.0 -21.0   9.0   9.0   0.0 -27.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.36

 EP112026 260831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.