Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  21.9  20.3  18.6  11.8  10.5  15.5  19.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          7.7  -2.8  -2.8  -2.8  -2.8 -12.1 -12.1 -10.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -25.0 -15.0 -16.0 -12.0  -1.0  -9.0  14.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.88

 EP112026 260901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.