Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  18.3  15.4  13.0  12.8  14.7  19.4  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -7.8  -7.8  -7.8  -7.8 -17.1 -15.8 -15.8 -19.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  -1.0 -19.0 -23.0 -48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.60

 EP112026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.