Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260902 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.2 13.4 13.0 13.7 14.6 21.5 16.4 21.5 F F F F F N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -12.8 -20.8 -22.1 -22.1 -20.8 -25.7 -23.3 -24.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 13.0 -8.0 -2.0 -4.0 -19.0 2.0 -60.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 50.0 51.0 50.0 45.0 43.0 44.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 6.0 8.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 8.0 N N N U N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.20 EP112026 260902 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125.