Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260902 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 132.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.9 12.0 12.4 15.6 18.4 21.6 19.6 23.9 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -20.8 -22.1 -22.1 -20.8 -25.7 -23.3 -25.7 -23.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 6.0 7.0 -4.0 -9.0 -41.0 -21.0 -13.0 U U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 49.0 48.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 11.0 6.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.08 EP112026 260902 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 132.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125.