Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260902 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 133.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 66.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.5 13.6 15.4 13.2 21.7 14.9 22.8 27.9 F F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -17.1 -17.1 -15.8 -15.8 -19.5 -18.3 -19.5 -20.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 -2.0 -14.0 -8.0 -27.0 13.0 -56.0 63.0 U U U U VU U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 50.0 45.0 42.0 39.0 39.0 38.0 40.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.08 EP112026 260902 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 133.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120.