Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260903 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.1 15.8 14.4 17.3 20.9 18.2 24.2 34.6 F F F F N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -10.8 -10.8 -10.8 -15.7 -14.5 -15.7 -14.5 -13.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -29.0 -17.0 -15.0 -26.0 0.0 22.0 58.0 U VU U U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 37.0 41.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 5.0 4.0 8.0 6.0 9.0 7.0 12.0 U N N U N U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.92 EP112026 260903 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115.