Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  13.8  16.7  20.7  20.5  22.4  28.6  39.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -0.8  -0.8  -5.7  -5.7  -3.3  -5.7  -5.7  -5.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -8.0  -2.0 -49.0   9.0   1.0  37.0  35.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  41.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   8.0   8.0   5.0  10.0   9.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.84

 EP112026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.