Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260903 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 136.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 16.2 19.9 23.7 22.5 23.8 32.8 37.9 F F N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 4.2 -0.7 -0.7 0.5 -0.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 -5.0 -37.0 -35.0 9.0 32.0 49.0 52.0 U U VU VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 39.0 40.0 37.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.78 EP112026 260903 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 136.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100.