Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  19.1  23.0  21.3  20.4  27.2  33.6  38.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.3   9.3  10.5  11.7   9.3  10.5  11.7  11.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -49.0 -44.0   2.0  12.0  20.0  61.0  43.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  37.0  39.0  37.0  37.0  39.0  36.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   8.0   3.0   9.0  10.0  13.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.74

 EP112026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.