Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260904 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 138.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 21.7 18.3 18.7 22.5 33.5 37.5 44.9 N N F N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 9.3 10.5 11.7 12.9 11.7 10.5 10.5 14.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -39.0 -39.0 0.0 41.0 35.0 56.0 23.0 50.0 VU VU U N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 38.0 38.0 37.0 40.0 37.0 40.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 5.0 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 4.0 U N N N U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.72 EP112026 260904 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 138.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.