Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    139.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  17.5  21.5  24.2  30.8  36.4  47.6  37.9  N  F  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.7  17.9  16.7  16.7  15.5  17.9  19.2  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  47.0  30.0  39.0  16.0  12.0   5.0 -25.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  35.0  37.0  36.0  40.0  36.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  11.0  12.0   4.0  -1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.80

 EP112026 260904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    139.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.