Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  20.2  23.7  29.1  36.0  40.9  47.2  38.7  F  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.9  26.7  26.7  27.9  27.9  26.7  29.2  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  20.0  32.0  28.0  44.0  59.0 -20.0  -5.0  U  U  N  U  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  39.0  35.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0   9.0   6.0  14.0   9.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.84

 EP112026 260904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.