Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    141.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  22.3  29.2  33.5  37.1  44.1  36.7  23.7  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.2  26.7  27.9  25.5  27.9  29.2  30.4  35.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  16.0   9.0  36.0  51.0  49.0 -11.0  11.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  36.0  34.0  37.0  35.0  34.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0   5.0  10.0  10.0   6.0  -1.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.86

 EP112026 260905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    141.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.