Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260905 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 142.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.4 33.9 38.2 37.1 41.7 35.6 27.8 21.7 N U U U VU U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.9 35.5 37.9 37.9 36.7 40.4 45.8 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 29.0 19.0 54.0 25.0 8.0 -18.0 13.0 U N U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 34.0 33.0 36.0 35.0 35.0 39.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 0.0 5.0 4.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.84 EP112026 260905 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 142.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.