Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  35.3  38.8  41.8  31.4  22.1  19.3  19.3  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.9  52.9  54.2  54.2  56.7  59.4  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  44.0  16.0  19.0   1.0 -11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  33.0  34.0  32.0  37.0  41.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.94

 EP112026 260906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.