Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260906 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 35.9 40.6 39.6 29.8 23.1 21.7 21.7 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.9 57.9 59.2 59.2 63.0 65.8 71.5 71.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 9.0 16.0 -29.0 -64.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 N U U VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 33.0 32.0 32.0 37.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 -3.0 2.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.90 EP112026 260906 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.