Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112026 260906 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 144.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.30 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 40.0 40.4 32.1 28.5 21.2 23.4 23.4 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.2 55.4 54.2 55.4 59.4 65.0 68.0 68.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 6.0 -15.0 -42.0 -18.0 32.0 7.0 7.0 U U U VU U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 33.0 35.0 38.0 42.0 50.0 43.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 12.0 7.0 7.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 EP112026 260906 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 144.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.