Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112026 260906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  38.6  32.1  30.9  26.2  28.7  28.7  28.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.2  59.2  60.4  63.0  68.6  71.5  71.5  71.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -53.0 -34.0 -55.0 -33.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  33.0  38.0  39.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.08

 EP112026 260906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.