Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    133.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.8  31.1  26.5  24.2  19.8  17.0  19.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0  12.0  16.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 124.6 122.3 122.3 120.1 120.1 113.6 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  37.0  30.0  58.0  60.0  44.0  31.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       14.7%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.5%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        6.5%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.1%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       20.3%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        8.1%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        6.3%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        5.3%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%       12.4%        6.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 EP122026 260828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    133.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  34.8  31.1  26.5  24.2  19.8  17.0  19.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%