Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  32.0  25.1  22.3  25.1  22.2  15.8  17.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  14.0  15.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 117.3 117.3 117.3 115.1 115.1 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  22.0  41.0  71.0  54.0  64.0  59.0  32.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        5.3%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 EP122026 260828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.3  32.0  25.1  22.3  25.1  22.2  15.8  17.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%