Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    132.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  29.8  20.1  16.3  20.7  15.3  18.0  20.5  U  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  12.0  17.0  15.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 117.3 117.3 115.1 110.7 108.6 108.6 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  55.0  59.0  51.0  80.0  80.0  86.0  72.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.6%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        2.6%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        5.0%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 EP122026 260828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    132.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  29.8  20.1  16.3  20.7  15.3  18.0  20.5  F  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%