Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  19.4  18.2  17.6  21.5  19.6  22.3  16.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0  11.0  16.0  15.0  16.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 115.1 115.1 115.1 110.7 108.6 106.5 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  38.0  40.0  53.0 109.0  63.0  89.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.2%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        8.6%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.6%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        5.4%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP122026 260828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  19.4  18.2  17.6  21.5  19.6  22.3  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%