Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.7  19.2  20.4  22.8  22.2  17.8  14.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  12.0  14.0  14.0  22.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 115.1 115.1 115.1 112.9 108.6 106.5 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   9.0  35.0  42.0  57.0  38.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        8.3%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.4%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        2.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        8.2%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        2.9%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        4.8%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP122026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.7  19.2  20.4  22.8  22.2  17.8  14.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%