Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    134.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.0  20.8  22.7  19.5  21.2  16.1  19.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  13.0  15.0  15.0  20.0  14.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 115.1 115.1 112.9 108.6 106.5 106.5 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  33.0  42.0  74.0  62.0  72.0  33.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.9%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        9.0%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        3.2%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.8%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        4.8%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP122026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    134.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.0  20.8  22.7  19.5  21.2  16.1  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%