Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  20.9  17.9  17.7  17.7  19.3  22.2  21.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  21.0  19.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 108.6 106.5 106.5 106.5 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  68.0  58.0  25.0  28.0  54.0  36.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        6.6%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        7.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.1%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%        2.5%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        3.5%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP122026 260829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  20.9  17.9  17.7  17.7  19.3  22.2  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%