Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  20.2  19.7  19.5  16.3  19.2  21.7  22.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  22.0  19.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  11.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 106.5 106.5 106.5 104.4 104.4 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  39.0   6.0  -6.0  34.0  60.0  53.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  57.0  58.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.1%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.9%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        9.3%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        2.8%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        2.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        4.0%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP122026 260830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  20.2  19.7  19.5  16.3  19.2  21.7  22.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  57.0  58.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%