Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.2  19.0  18.0  18.4  23.1  18.4  23.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  24.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5  99.4  99.4  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0 -10.0 -20.0  -1.0  25.0  59.0  56.0  67.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  50.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        7.5%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        3.3%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        2.8%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        2.7%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        8.9%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.9%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        2.1%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        3.3%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP122026 260830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.2  19.0  18.0  18.4  23.1  18.4  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  50.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%