Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  20.7  21.3  19.5  19.8  16.4  20.6  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  20.0  30.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5  99.4  99.4  99.4  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  19.0   6.0  27.0  29.0  61.0  52.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        6.4%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.3%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.5%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.8%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        2.0%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        2.8%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 EP122026 260830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  20.7  21.3  19.5  19.8  16.4  20.6  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%