Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.8  21.1  21.0  15.5  21.1  20.6  22.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  25.0  29.0  20.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5  99.4  99.4  99.4  99.4  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   5.0  28.0  32.0  21.0   3.0  12.0  13.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.3%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.6%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        1.8%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP122026 260831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.8  21.1  21.0  15.5  21.1  20.6  22.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%