Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  20.5  20.6  19.4  16.9  21.9  21.4  25.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0  10.0  14.0  29.0  25.0  21.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  96.5  94.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  40.0  57.0  31.0  56.0  35.0  29.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.0%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        8.5%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        4.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        3.6%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%        3.3%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       10.2%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        3.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        2.6%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.9%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        2.7%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 EP122026 260831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  20.5  20.6  19.4  16.9  21.9  21.4  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%