Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  19.3  17.9  23.2  26.5  21.3  21.8  23.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  15.0  24.0  31.0  23.0  23.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  95.7  89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  85.5  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  32.0  29.0  37.0  50.0  24.0  12.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        4.6%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       16.3%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%        9.0%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%        8.7%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%        8.3%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       10.1%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        3.2%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        2.8%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        1.6%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        2.3%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 EP122026 260831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  19.3  17.9  23.2  26.5  21.3  21.8  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%