Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  20.5  24.3  24.4  21.9  22.9  18.2  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  24.0  31.0  29.0  21.0  24.0  10.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  89.4  85.5  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  40.0  41.0  39.0  16.0  41.0  27.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.1%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%        7.8%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        3.9%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        3.4%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        3.1%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        4.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        1.6%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.5%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP122026 260901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  20.5  24.3  24.4  21.9  22.9  18.2  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%