Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  26.0  27.3  25.0  17.1  16.1  18.8  19.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  31.0  27.0  22.0  25.0  14.0  11.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  84.4  80.5  82.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  29.0  41.0  64.0  14.0  12.0  26.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.0%        5.5%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%       15.8%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       10.1%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       10.1%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%        7.7%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       13.1%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        5.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        3.8%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.3%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP122026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  26.0  27.3  25.0  17.1  16.1  18.8  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%