Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    149.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  23.1  19.8  14.8  14.4  20.7  25.6  20.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  23.0  20.0  24.0  14.0  11.0  13.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4  64.4  64.4  64.4  60.5  60.5  62.4  62.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  37.0  18.0  20.0  32.0  58.0  48.0  -5.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.5%       19.2%       35.4%
 25kt / 24h       38.1%       35.2%       36.6%
 30kt / 24h       38.1%       34.0%       36.1%
 35kt / 24h       38.1%       34.0%       36.1%
 40kt / 24h       38.1%       30.2%       34.1%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       29.0%       27.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP122026 260901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    149.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  23.1  19.8  14.8  14.4  20.7  25.6  20.4  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%