Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  16.3  14.9  15.0  17.4  26.0  20.6  20.6  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  25.0  24.0  12.0  11.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  34.4  34.4  34.4  30.5  30.5  32.4  34.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   8.0  37.0  48.0  33.0  67.0  31.0   9.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.8%       10.3%       22.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       13.1%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP122026 260902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  16.3  14.9  15.0  17.4  26.0  20.6  20.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%