Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    151.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.5  15.5  18.6  22.9  24.1  17.2  14.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  26.0  27.0  17.0  12.0  12.0  15.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  26.5  22.4  22.4  24.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  50.0  77.0  72.0  85.0  63.0  30.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  54.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.8%        0.0%       16.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP122026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    151.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.5  15.5  18.6  22.9  24.1  17.2  14.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  54.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%