Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  17.5  17.2  20.4  19.7  18.6  17.0  14.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  22.0  13.0  13.0  12.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.4   4.4   6.5   6.5   6.5   8.6   8.6  10.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  50.0  33.0  72.0 101.0  17.0  35.0 -18.0  F  N  N  N  F  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP122026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  17.5  17.2  20.4  19.7  18.6  17.0  14.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%