Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  19.2  23.6  25.4  23.0  17.7  15.6  12.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  18.6  18.6  20.7  16.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  33.0  71.0  78.0  82.0  54.0  22.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP122026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  19.2  23.6  25.4  23.0  17.7  15.6  12.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%