Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  24.8  28.4  26.3  21.1  15.9  12.7  14.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.5  26.5  26.5  26.5  28.6  30.7  26.5  26.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  62.0  69.0  86.0  88.0  26.0  40.0  39.0  N  N  N  F  F  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP122026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  24.8  28.4  26.3  21.1  15.9  12.7  14.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  56.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.2%        5.6%