Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    157.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.5  20.4  18.2  17.5  12.7  14.4  19.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  14.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.5  26.5  26.5  28.6  28.6  24.4  26.5  22.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  46.0  40.0  36.0  37.0   0.0  -7.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 EP122026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    157.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.5  20.4  18.2  17.5  12.7  14.4  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.7%        3.9%