Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  21.0  18.2  19.2  13.9  11.5  15.9  26.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  33.6  33.6  33.6  35.7  31.5  31.5  29.4 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  27.0  23.0  18.0  -7.0   1.0   5.0 100.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP122026 260904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  21.0  18.2  19.2  13.9  11.5  15.9  26.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%