Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122026 260904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    159.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.2  15.6  14.0  11.4  18.4  23.9  38.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  17.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.6  38.6  38.6  40.7  40.7  36.5  34.4  34.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  17.0  12.0 -25.0  12.0  56.0  45.0  33.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 EP122026 260904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    159.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.2  15.6  14.0  11.4  18.4  23.9  38.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%